Cardiovascular disease has long been the leading cause of death globally, but new predictive scores developed by researchers at Kansas State University are helping doctors and patients intervene earlier. These updated equations from the American Heart Association (AHA) offer more accurate risk assessments for individuals over 30, taking into account factors such as age, cholesterol, blood pressure, and other health metrics. These scores predict the chances of developing heart disease, stroke, or heart failure over the next 10 to 20 years.

The research, based on a large database of nearly 200 million participants, confirmed that the equations effectively identify individuals at high and low risk, while also estimating the timing of potential cardiovascular events. Rather than predicting specific outcomes for individuals, the scores indicate the likelihood of experiencing cardiovascular disease based on shared risk factors. For example, a 10% risk means that 10 out of 100 people with similar factors will experience a cardiovascular event. The scores are categorized into four risk levels: low risk (under 5%), borderline risk (5-7.4%), intermediate risk (7.5-19.9%), and high risk (over 20%). This study, which provides independent validation of the scores, increases confidence among healthcare providers as they adopt these tools in patient care.