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Gas prices in the U.S. are expected to rise in the coming weeks. Gregg Ibendahl, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, says that because the Middle East is the world’s top oil-producing region, any instability there often leads to higher oil and gas prices.

Crude oil prices rose from $67 per barrel on Friday to $72 on Monday. Historical data shows that for every $1 increase in the price of oil, U.S. gas prices usually rise about 2.4 cents per gallon. With recent price changes, gas could reach between $3.10 and $3.16 per gallon within a month.

Ibendahl said crude oil price spikes generally affect pump prices for weeks, especially when uncertainty continues in key oil-producing regions. If the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route for global oil, is blocked or if violence escalates, oil prices could climb above $100 per barrel. This could push gas prices near $4 per gallon.

Overall, U.S. drivers are likely to feel the effects at the pump before the end of the month, with continued fluctuations possible depending on the stability of the region.